India's economic growth rises to 7.2%

India’s Q3 GDP jumps to 7 2 per cent

India grows 7.2 percent in the last quarter (October-December) to regain its status of becoming the world largest growing economy in that period.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) recently released the Second Advance Estimates (2 AE) for 2017-18, and the 3quarter GDP growth figures for October-December 2017.

The impact of the two policy measures - the sudden note ban of demonetization and hasty GST implementation - began to fade in July-September when GDP expanded 6.5%, an upward revision from 6.3% estimated by CSO earlier.

It is the highest quarterly growth recorded since July-September quarter of 2016-17.

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During the December quarter, the gross valued added (GVA) for manufacturing grew at 8.9 per cent higher than 6.9 per cent in the previous quarter.

16 out of the 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of December 2017 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. For these sectors, the 2 AE is higher than that for the previous year.

However, growth in agriculture, forestry, and fishing, which employ over half of the country's labor force, would be able to achieve only a 3% growth rate. Surely that is bound to weigh on growth and dent confidence, especially with the government and the probe agencies appearing to go overboard after successive reports of frauds and wrongdoing in many banks.

He expressed hope that the government's commitment to implementing structural reforms would fuel an increase in the growth rate.

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The rebound in GVA was led by stronger industrial activity and higher than expected growth in agriculture sector. Attempts towards deposit mobilisation would be required to sustain a pick-up in credit growth.

"RBI has to balance between growth and inflation". The services segment including financial services grew at rate of 6.7 per cent up from 6.4 per cent in previous quarter. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) too shows the investment activity growing at a healthy pace with GFCF at constant prices growing at 12 percent in Q3 compared with 6.9 percent in Q2. Another labor-intensive sector like mining and manufacturing is estimated to grow at a rate of 3% and 5.1% respectively.

"In John's view, GDP will come in at 7% for the quarter". The only worry is that, as Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings Ltd, says, "The present revelation of high fiscal deficit up to January could be a risk factor in terms of continued support for construction".

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