Oil rises as IEA forecast overshadows USA crude build

Oil Rises As U.S. Refineries Restart Irma Wanes

Opec in the report also said its oil output in August came in below the demand forecast as output fell by 79,000bpd from July to 32.76 million bpd.

At the start of August, the OPEC meeting raised hopes of better compliance with Saudi indicating more export cuts.

"There will be some demand lost - obviously Florida is a big gasoline demand center", Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultants Energy Aspects, said in a television interview. "If the Harvey impact was potentially and possibly short-term bullish for oil prices the same can not be said about Irma", PVM analyst Tamas Varga said in a note. As I have written before, the IEA is notorious for underestimating demand and had to once again raise their forecast.

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Global benchmark Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the US, fell 0.32% to $53.67 a barrel.

October West Texas Intermediate crude CLV7, +1.20% tacked on 59 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $48.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after tapping a low at $47.

"Depending on the pace of recovery for the USA refining industry post-Harvey, very soon OECD product stocks could fall to, or even below, the five-year level", the IEA's report read.

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Major oil producers agreed to cut crude oil production by 1.8 MMbpd from January 2017 to March 2018. A monthly report from the cartel on Tuesday showed that production had fallen, largely attributed to output declines in Iraq, Libya, Gabon and Venezuela. Total volume traded was about 13% above the 100-day average.

Gasoline stocks fell 8.4 million barrels, the largest draw on record, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1 million-barrel drop. According to the EIA, the lower refinery demand for crude oil and limited ability to move crude oil resulted in crude oil inventory builds at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast of 800,000 barrels and 1.7 million barrels respectively as of Friday, September 1.

Demand grew by 2.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 2.4 per cent, in the second quarter of 2017, prompting the Paris-based organisation to increase its growth estimate for the year to 1.6 mb/d, or 1.7 per cent. The spread could push US producers to find more export opportunities for USA crude. Prices are still less than half their levels in mid-2014.

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