Crude Oil Dips In Asia Ahead Of OPEC, API Inventory Reports

Opec and other producers including Russia pledged to reduce oil output by about 1.8 million barrels a day through March

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the US economy could suffer lost revenue from the storms and the estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product could drop a half point to 2.5 percent as a result. But oil market watchers cannot ignore Pyongyang's increasingly aggressive stance for the impact it could have on oil demand - a crucial variable in rebalancing the markets.

These risks come at a time when the oversupply of oil was just beginning to balance out against demand. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will release its inventory data on Tuesday.

The adjustment is mainly due to better-than-expected economic growth from OECD regions, which is expected to continue next year.

The deal to curb output propelled crude prices above $58 a barrel in January but they have since slipped back to a $50 to $54 range as the effort to drain global inventories has taken longer than expected.

For comparison, in August, OPEC predicted that world oil demand in 2018 will grow by 1.28 million barrels per day relative to the indicator of this year and reach 97.8 million barrels. The U.N. Security Council this week passed new sanctions on North Korea in response to recent missile activity, though the measure was less strict that the Trump administration had wanted.

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Market sources have told us that China supplies small volumes of crude from its Daqing block to North Korea's Ponghwa refinery - through a pipeline.

OPEC meanwhile revised upwards its estimate for global oil demand by 1.42 million bpd to 96.77 million bpd this year.

However, the gap will create a strong incentive to export surplus crude from the United States to tighter markets in Europe and Asia.

Harvey is still likely to be a bigger driver for the crude market, analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

Oil prices still gain some degree of support from expectations of firm global demand and the potential for OPEC output cuts to be extended.

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Total non-OPEC supply will amount to 57.8 million barrels in 2017.

The Saudi Energy Ministry said that Bozumbayev, who met with Falih on Sunday, said that despite the gradual ramp up of the Kashagan field this year, "Kazakhstan was able, through reducing production in other fields in August, to achieve more than full conformity" with its output cut target.

Nigeria produced 1.81 million b/d in July, up 30,000 b/d from June.

USA crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.35%, to $48.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Croft predicted the key producer as to whether or not the agreement is renewed is Saudi Arabia, Kallanish Energy finds. OPEC has invited both to its upcoming monitoring meeting on September 22. It was not clear if the two countries will be asked to join the cut agreement.

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Commodity markets abhor a gap and will find a way to arbitrage it away.

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