Q1 GDP growth slumps to 3-yr low @5.7%

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Overall economic expansion cooled to 5.7 percent in the June quarter, data released on Thursday showed, its slackest pace in more than three years.

The CSO estimates shows that gross value added (GVA) grew 5.6 percent in April-June which is lower than the last year's 7.6 percent growth during the same quarter.

"GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 of 2017-18 is estimated at 31.10 lakh crore, as against 29.42 lakh crore in Q1 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 5.7 percent". Let me tell you that in the first quarter of 2016-17, the GDP rate was 7.9%.

Manufacturing sector growth dipped to 1.2% in the April-July quarter, down from 5.3% in the previous quarter, according to the data from the Central Statistics Office.

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Manufacturing sectors such sharp drop, as per the duo at ICICI Securities was presumably affected significantly by inventory de stocking ahead of the implementation of GST in July. Farm sector growth was a modest 0.3 percent versus last year's 9.9 percent.

Although growth was already slowing, Modi's decision last November to scrap high-value old banknotes - a bid to flush out the money Indians hide from tax officials - wiped out about 86 percent of currency in circulation virtually overnight. "Its performance has been poor, though the sales growth is good", he added. China's economy expanded 6.9% in the last two quarters.

As far as consumption expenditure is concerned the boost came from the government's side during the quarter.

India aims to trim the fiscal deficit to 3.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2017-18 compared with 3.5 percent in the previous year.

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"Even though the crop production side has seen an increase compared to past year, overall agriculture comes in marginally lower because of the other elements of agriculture, which is principally animal husbandry that is slightly lower", the Secretary in the Statistics and Programme Implementation Ministry said. Crisil has noted that the government has also revised down GVA growth for the fourth quarter of last fiscal by 50 basis points to 5.6 percent, suggesting that the impact of demonetisation on the economy was more than earlier estimated.

"Gross fixed capital ratio turned positive, investment improved.services improved", during the first quarter, he added.

Many analysts had expected the economy to bounce back after the government's crackdown on black market cash a year ago.

He said there was a requirement to improve policy and investment to improve upon these figures. We don't expect any rate cuts from here on.

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India's maiden GST collections hit Rs92,283 crore in July , surpassing the target, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said Tuesday. In the next meeting on September 9, the Council will decide the date on which the cess will become applicable.

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